How the Mid-Range jumper has seen a resurgence this NBA postseason:

The mid-range jumper has been a staple in the repertoires of some of the greatest players to walk this earth. Larry Bird, Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, Allen Iverson, the list goes on and on. The mid-range-J was just more of a focus for many of the best players then developing a three point shot at this time. Fast forward to the year 2011 and the percentage of FG attempts in the league that came from the mid-range was at 30.3%. This all coincided with an era of basketball where the floor was shrunk, and until its ban in 2005, hand-checking galore occurred across the league. The league had decreased in physicality and pace increased along with it, but there still was a significant emphasis on defense, physicality, and the mid-range-J across the league. Then, along came a man named Daryl Morey who changed the league as we knew it….

Moreyball

Daryl Morey began his career not in a basketball front office, but in the mathematics field, working for the same organization (STATS inc.), where renowned baseball analytics pioneer Bill James got his beginnings. Morey in his time with STATS inc, actually developed a formula to use for predicting win-loss percentages in basketball. He adapted the Bill James Pythagorean formula, using 13.91 as an exponent instead in 1992 at the age of 20. After working with STATS Inc. for many years, a stint with a consultant firm, and working in the Celtics organization for four years, he was hired as the assistant general manager of the Houston Rockets in 2006. One year later, he was named the GM of the Rockets at the age of 34. At the time, he was one of the youngest executives ever hired in the NBA. 

In this time in the league, it was extremely uncommon for teams to hire executives from non basketball backgrounds, and his hire was met with immediate skepticism. It took many years for the Rockets to morph into the “Moreyball” Rockets that revolutionized basketball, being stuck in perpetual purgatory, biding their time to acquire the right superstar. That superstar came in the form of James Harden, who at the time of their acquisition of “The Beard” in 2012, was a 6th Man of the Year in Oklahoma City, where the Thunder wouldn’t pony up the $15 million/year max deal he coveted (Sam Presti, c'mon man.) What Morey saw in Harden that Oklahoma City did not, was an offensive fulcrum that could pioneer his burgeoning offense philosophy. That philosophy being the de-emphasis of long twos and pumping up the amount of three pointers and shots within the restricted area. The shots that are statistically more efficient for an offense, and can maximize the scoring potential for a team.

So as Harden began his eight year stretch of averaging 25+ PPG every season, Morey built the roster around Harden over time, placing a high priority on three-and-D wings and lob threats at the rim. Players such as Dwight Howard, Clint Capela, Eric Gordon, and P.J. Tucker reaped the benefits of having a heliocentric superstar at the helm of the controls. Morey’s vision was further fueled after hiring Mike D’Antoni in 2016, who helmed one of the first teams that played a modern style of pace and space basketball, the “seven seconds or less” Phoenix Suns of the mid 2000’s. Morey revolutionized basketball, making the playoffs every season in that eight year span I mentioned prior and inspiring many copycat approaches to Moreyball. The Rockets never reached the finals in Harden’s time in Houston, but MAN they were a fun team to watch. This analytical approach to modern basketball, in my eyes, led to (it wasn’t just Steph Curry; Hot take, I stand by it) the explosion in three point attempts and rim-runners, and cratered my beloved mid-range shot. Every season after 2011, the amount of FG attempts from the mid-range decreased each season from the 30.3% mark, down to 12.9% in the 2020-2021 season. 

The in-between game had been thought to have gone the way of the dodo bird, the saber-tooth tiger, and the dinosaur. Completely and utterly extinct. 

Yet, there has been a remarkable boost in the amount of attempts in the mid-range this postseason, which is interesting considering the way team philosophies have shifted in the past decade-plus. So why is that the case? Well there is a good reason for it.

The New Guard

Many of the figureheads of the rise of the pace and space basketball era, have either been eliminated from the postseason rather early, or have passed their prime. IE, James Harden, Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, etc.. The new guard of players that have risen to superstardom rather recently have played their entire youth careers in pace and space basketball, but many players have shown a reliance on getting to the mid-range with ruthless efficiency. Here are a few of the players that have grown to be the faces of the NBA that have spearheaded the rebirth of the mid-range-J this postseason. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

The Canadian Wunderkind has been at the forefront of a basketball renaissance in Oklahoma City a year after breaking out in 22-23, putting up 31.4/4.8/5.5 splits for the play-in tournament-bound Thunder. He replicated those numbers almost to a tee this year, posting a 30.1/5.5/6.2 statline while leading the Thunder to a sterling 57-25 record, and the No. 1 seed in the loaded Western conference. Finishing 2nd in a contested MVP race, he deserves his flowers for how he has led an exciting collection of young talent in Oklahoma as “Mr. Consistency.” He continued his stellar play in the postseason, besting the New Orleans Pelicans in a first round sweep before faltering to the Dallas Mavericks in six games in the Western Conference semifinals. The Thunder roster had many of their core young players showing their lack of experience in bigger moments. But not Shai, showing that he is here to stay, and will continue to be one of the game’s brightest stars for years to come.

He notably in this postseason upped his already-high volume of shots in the mid-range, averaging the most attempts in the 8-16 ft area of the court in the league (9.3 FGA), while still shooting 52.7%. Standing at 6’6”, he is too quick for bigger guards to keep up with and physically outmatches smaller guards. A true mismatch nightmare, whenever the Thunder went into scoring droughts, especially against Dallas, Shai seemed to be able to get a bucket in the midrange at will. He is so adept at getting to his spots that it’s like watching basketball poetry. He is one of the very few players in the league averaging 30 points a game like it’s a walk in the park, yet doesn’t succumb to the three-point hysteria that has swept the league the past decade. Out of Shai’s 30.1 PPG average and 224 field goal attempts this postseason, he took a grand total of 37 beyond-the-arc shots. A minuscule 16.5% of his total shots!

Not to mention that in the mid-range, Shai is elite at drawing contact, with defenders overeager to contest his patented in-between game, getting to the line 8.1 times per game this postseason. The ability to make the long two the main weapon of choice has been throwing defenses for a loop for the past two seasons, having to prepare for one of the most unorthodox approaches in the modern NBA. Shai is at the forefront of bringing back the midrange, and for his first playoff go-around, the sky's the limit.  

Jalen Brunson

If you told me Jalen Brunson would be finishing top five in MVP voting five years ago, I would have thought you were insane. Keep in mind, if we turn back the clock a little bit, Jalen Brunson was coming off a rookie year where he didn’t even crack double-figures for the Dallas Mavericks. Jalen’s meteoric rise to stardom is something that no one in their right mind saw coming except Jalen himself. I mentioned Harden previously as a heliocentric superstar, and that is what precisely Jalen has been for the New York Knicks these past two years. Jalen put up 28.7/3.6/6.7 splits for the regular season, where he willed the hospital bed Knicks to the Eastern Conference Semis, until they ultimately just were too injured to continue, losing in seven games to the Indiana Pacers. Brunson was a one man band at times, averaging 32.7 points per game this postseason and scoring in crunch time like he has been doing this his entire NBA career. 

Like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Brunson was operating almost exclusively in the mid-range, and averaged 7.7 FGA in the 8-16 ft area in the playoffs, ranking 2nd in the league. Shooting 46% ,he displayed mid-range pull ups in the pick and roll, fall away J’s in the post, and isolation 15 footers. His bag is endless. The 6'2” dynamo lefty played valiantly, and made his impact felt in every aspect of the Knicks offense. He directed the pick and roll like a savant, picking apart the 76ers and Pacers as both a dangerous scorer and director of the offense as a passer. Easily the most impressed I was with Brunson this postseason was, no doubt, game five of the Eastern Conference semifinals. 

Going into game five with the series tied at two apiece, Brunson went off for 44 points, taking an astronomical 35 shots from the field. Impressively, out of those 35 attempts, only six came from beyond the arc, deferring to his stellar in-between game to generate offense time and time again. His game five shot chart displayed a smattering of dots in the restricted space and 15-foot area, a rare occurrence in the modern era. Brunson’s “put the team on my back” moment was a moment of reckoning for the rest of the league, showing that this season wasn’t a fluke and that he and the New York Knicks are here to stay. The league is better when the Knicks are good, and Brunson’s in-between wizardry is the catalyst for the Knicks resurgence. 

Paolo Banchero

Okay, okay, yes I just mentioned previously about the smattering of star players that exited in the first round as a reason to showcase my argument for the mid-range jumper postseason renaissance. But, I couldn’t write this without showing my admiration for the supersized Seattle native ball handler, Paolo Banchero. I recently was pursuing some of my favorite basketball memories on YouTube the other day, and one of the highlight reels I viewed was LeBron James against the Boston Celtics in Game 6 of the 2012 Eastern Conference semis. Backs against the wall, down 3-2 at the Garden, LeBron had one of the greatest performances of his career. 45 points, 15 rebounds, and 19-26 from the floor to lead the Miami Heat to a game six victory. As we all know, the Heat eventually went on to win game 7 and cruised their way to win the 2012 finals and LeBron claimed his elusive first NBA title. But seeing that performance in game six, watching LeBron eviscerate the Celtics in the post, hitting fallaway fades, 15-foot pullup jumpers, dissecting the Big 4 Celtics like he was Doogie Howser, I thought to myself. Holy S***, there is a player in the league right now that is the closest thing to how LeBron played in his prime. That player is Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero. Now, I’m not giving him a LeBron comparison in terms of their ability, that is a label not to be taken lightly. But their playstyles are remarkably similar, and while their abilities to be primary offensive initiators are a chief similarity, it’s their ability to work the mid-range game is what brought me to this conclusion. 

Paolo Banchero vs Cavaliers 39 pts 8 reb 4 ast | April 30, 2024 |

Take this clip of Paolo’s 39 point performance vs the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 5 of the first round of the NBA playoffs this past year. Sizing up Isaac Okoro, giving a hesitation move right and driving left into a fallaway midrange off one leg? Cash.

LeBron James GREATEST Game EVER? Full Game 6 Highlights vs Celtics (2012 Playoffs) - 45 Pts, 15 Reb!

Now take this shot out of the amount of ridiculous makes LeBron had that fateful night in Boston. The parallels between the two No. 1 overall picks are eerie..

Paolo had a phenomenal season in his own right this year for Orlando, vaulting the Magic into the postseason for the first time since the Disney World bubble tournament, with statistical improvements across all major categories for his sophomore campaign. 22.6/6.9/5.4 splits is a heck of a season when you consider the Rookie of the Year season he had in 22-23. But he really opened my eyes to what his ceiling could ultimately be in three, four, five years down the road, with a monster 27 PPG and 8.6 RPG in the first round, taking the Cleveland Cavaliers to a seven game series. He did all this with a high volume in the midrange, taking almost six shots per game in the 8-16 ft area of the court, and that doesn’t take into account his ability to draw contact in that part of the court. Seven free-throw attempts per game for the 21-year-old in his first taste of playoff action is remarkable, and he remained unfazed throughout possibly one of the most physical playoff series we saw across the league. 

I originally thought coming out of college, I was watching a bigger Carmelo Anthony enter the league, but honestly, I think that is selling Paolo short on his ability to direct an offense as a point forward masquerading as a big man. In a similar sense to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, he is too large for small defenders to try and match him in the post, and he is far too athletic for opposing 4’s or 5’s to keep up with on the perimeter. Seeing Paolo cut down on the turnovers and poor passes will be something to watch, as teams have started to send swarms of defenders to him when he tries to get to a patented mid-range fade. 

Paolo Banchero represents a blend of the old and the new generation, and I can’t wait to see what else he has in store for the foreseeable future.