Will Tipton’s Case for Rob Dillingham
An Artist on the Court: Why Rob Dillingham is Deserving of the No. 1 Selection
This winter, I took a weeklong trip with my family to the Tampa/Clearwater, Florida, area for vacation following the culmination of my fall semester. One of the last days I spent in Florida, we went to the Dalí Dome, an immersive exhibit of the life work of famous artist Salvador Dalí. Dalí was ahead of his time, most known for his use of surrealism. Surrealism is an art style where the artist uses a variety of random objects in their art to intentionally make the audience question what they were seeing.
I was astonished by some of the sheer sizes of Dalí’s pieces, some of which scaled over twenty feet tall. The beauty and craftsmanship were amazing to see in person, and for someone that would rather tour the Tropicana Dome than view an art gallery, I honestly was extremely grateful to experience the beauty of Dalí’s pieces in person.
In basketball, the player that reminds me of the beauty of Dalí’s artwork would be the playmaking guard. The twenty-first century has brought a revolution into how a leading guard operates, from the power and athleticism of Russell Westbrook, to the craftiness of James Harden, to the silkiness of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Playmaking guards come in all shapes and sizes, and they are all a pleasure to watch operate.
Younger guards that have taken up this mantle this season include Tyrese Maxey of the 76ers, who in the wake of Joel Embiid’s knee injury that left him at 50% for the first round against the Knicks, turned it up to another level. The 4th-year guard out of Kentucky averaged 29.6/6.8/5.2 in the six-game series where they eventually fell to the Knicks. Maxey showed he can be a true superstar level player for the Sixers, scoring from all three levels of the court with a combination of deep range, a smooth floater game, and the playmaking of a seasoned vet.
With the 2024 NBA Draft right around the corner, it has been labeled by many experts as the worst draft class in over a decade, where the #1 pick held by the Hawks would have been valued as a #7 or #8 pick in last year's draft. There is no general consensus on the best player in this draft, as the cycle of names is plentiful depending on where you read your draft information from. For me, there is so much uncertainty in this draft that I will value scoring translation the most out of any trait from a player. The player that fits that criteria to a tee in this draft is the Kentucky sensation Rob Dillingham, a type of scoring guard that would make Dalí smile. He’s a player with exceptional strengths but also very noticeable weaknesses, which is why he is such a polarizing prospect. So why not give him a breakdown?
Scoring
There is zero doubt in my mind the skill that will be Dillingham’s calling card in the league will be his ability to score the rock. The 6’1” guard is what you would call, “a walking bucket.” The freshman averaged 15.2 points per game on 47.5/44.4/79.6 shooting splits, playing 23.3 minutes a game coming off the bench the entire season. His per-40 stats come out to a whopping 26.1 points a game, and gives an idea of his impact on an NBA team that thrusts him into a starting level role. Rob consistently created his own shot all year for the Wildcats, and was a threat on all three levels of the floor. Closing out hard on his jumper? He’ll attack hard closeouts and finish around the rim. Sag off Rob? He’ll pull up from three with zero hesitation. Rob has a full bag of tricks, and will find a way to try and score the ball.
Rob has a jittery first step and can get downhill in a blink of an eye, which opens up the wide range of shot options he goes to, whether that be a mid range pull up or a drive to the cup, where he has a smooth layup package to finish over skywalking big men. A lot of these looks come in isolation situations, and his creation ability will be on full display in the NBA, where the spacing fits Dillingham’s game like a glove.
Rob is especially efficient in off-the-ball situations as well, where on catch-and-shoot looks he put up a 69 EFG%, ranking in the 97th percentile in college basketball! He has a very unique jumpshot, getting an amount of elevation on his jumper that would make Ray Allen proud. But, it works to great effectivity, and his release is as smooth as it gets. I really look forward to an NBA team utilizing that skill off-the-ball, where Kentucky really lacked in trying to free him up off the ball with ball screens to generate open looks.
Dillingham’s shooting opens up the entire floor for him and lets him thrive in getting looks at the rim, where he shot 52% for the season. Watching SEC basketball pretty closely this past season, I kept waiting for Rob Dillingham to be stonewalled at the rim by bigger, more athletic players…but it never happened. What Dillingham lacks in size, he makes it up in moxie. Time and time again he went to the rack and finished with the finesse of a magician performing a complex magic act. Like I said previously, Dillingham has creativity laying balls on numerous angles off the glass to pair with a beautiful floater game, and the stones to lay his body on the line to get a bucket in the lane.
Dillingham will, however, let his moxie get the best of him, and can take ill-advised shots at the rim and within the half court offense. He was a higher volume shooter for the Wildcats, ranking second on Kentucky in shot attempts for the year. This occasionally led him to the occasional pronounced off-night. He shot 2-9 from the floor in a first round exit to future accountant Jack Gohlke and Oakland, 6-16 vs North Carolina, and 1-9 against UNC-Wilmington. He isn’t immune to putting up clunkers.
He also tends to get tunnel vision at times and that shows up more in his drives to the rim than anything. His overeagerness to try and create for himself showed up more in his season with Overtime Elite in his senior year of high school, and he toned it down a bit in college, but it still appears on his Kentucky tape at times.
However, to say how confident I am that Rob Dillingham’s scoring ability will translate to the NBA, at the very least, even if he doesn’t reach his ceiling as a ball handler and playmaker for an offense, he will be a yearly 6th-man-of-the-year candidate in the mold of a Lou Williams or Malik Monk.
The way he can score the ball is that of an artist, and just like how people didn’t appreciate Salvador Dalí’s work at the time, I think Rob has become underappreciated in draft conversations, where he is, at the moment, projected to go anywhere from pick five to pick 14.
Ball Handling/Playmaking
There is a reason that Rob Dillingham’s instagram username is “Robwitthashifts.” The man is as electric with the ball in his hands as it comes. His stop and start ability is what separates him from the good to the great as a ball handler. His slitheryness as a ball handler allows him to get by his defender without really having to dip into his package of dribble moves when it's not necessary.
But when he wants to, Rob can use a variety of dribble moves that make you think you’re seeing Kyrie Irving out on the court. His viability as a primary ball handler in the NBA really intrigues me, just from viewing his general decision making in game and his positive assist-to-turnover ratio.
Dillingham has a great feel for the pick-and-roll as a ball handler, and you can see why he posted a 30% assist rate, ranking 5th among Power Five freshmen in the NCAA. What he especially loved to do in the ball screen action was to draw in the big man defender protecting the rim on his drives to the rim. Rob would then have an easy lob for the two to his teammate on the weak side block. His ability to see the whole court really opened the floor for him to do whatever he wanted in ball screen action, whether it be dish it to the perimeter or set up a shot for himself from all levels of the court.
The Kentucky offensive rating with DJ Wagner on the court - 104.0
The Kentucky offensive rating with Rob Dillingham on the court - 124.0
There was a noticeable increase in synergy with the Kentucky offense with Rob Dillingham running the point on offense compared to starter and higher-ranked recruit, DJ Wagner. The ball movement was much more pronounced and easier looks came for the whole season with a true efficient playmaking guard. Dillingham, with a game reminiscent of the AND1 mixtape tour, takes care of the ball and makes the right play more often than not.
Athleticism/Defense
This is the area of Rob’s game I am most concerned with at the next level. Rob stands at 6’1” without shoes, and has a less than ideal frame to go along with it. He exasperates his physical disadvantage by taking unnecessary gambles off the ball and putting himself out of position of the play.
Yet, I champion Rob’s effort on defense, as it is not like he isn’t a willing defender, he just lacks the physical chops to succeed in his aggressive style of defense.
The margin for error is even greater in the pros against the best offensive players the game has to offer. Rob’s defensive fundamentals are just not where they need to be, and they are the biggest area of his game he needs to clean up.
Rob is not a below-average athlete by any means, but he isn’t a high flier thundering his way into dunks either. Dillingham’s ability to break down the defense is certainly special, but more athletic and smart defenders await him in the league. He will certainly need to keep on relying on his craftiness to get buckets on the aforementioned types of players he will be facing.
The Skinny
Draft analysts have already seemed to have pigeonholed Rob into the sixth man/microwave scorer role, with consistent comparisons to Bones Hyland and Lou Williams. But I think that is selling Rob short as a playmaker and offensive fulcrum.
Here is the list of all high-major freshmen in the past 16 years to post an above 30% assist rate while shooting greater than 40% from three:
D’Angelo Russell Ohio State 2015
Wade Baldwin IV Vanderbilt 2016
Jawun Evans Oklahoma State 2017
Lonzo Ball UCLA 2017
Markelle Fultz Washington 2017
Jordan Bohannon Iowa 2017
Rob Dillingham Kentucky 2024
Lonzo, D’Angelo, and Markelle weren’t put in the same category as Rob as a “microwave scorer”, and I believe Rob has the potential to direct an offense the way NBA teams pictured the previous players mentioned.
Like Salvador Dalí, Rob’s game is underappreciated in the moment, and the full beauty of his game will be recognized in due time. He is a player that blows my mind to think the “experts” have possibly falling into the late lottery. His game is reminiscent at times of scoring guards like Allen Iverson and Kyrie Irving. A whirling dervish of shot creating, playmaking, and electric scoring to go along with a killer mindset.
I used Maxey as an example earlier, as Dillingham’s game is very eerily similar to how Tyrese operates on all three levels of the floor. The table setting for his teammates, the deep range, the ability to get any shot in isolation situations, the pick and roll ability.. I see a carbon copy of an undersized scoring guard from Kentucky who is falling in the mock drafts.
A silky smooth scoring guard from Kentucky..haven’t we heard this tale before? John Wall, Devin Booker, Jamal Murray, Immanuel Quickley, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Maxey….teams better not mess up with Dillingham as they have had before. The Kentucky guard usually gets the last laugh…
Player Grade: Top 3
Shades of: Lou Williams, Tyrese Maxey, Immanuel Quickly, Allen Iverson
